Overview

This project provides situational awareness and planning tools to support communities preparing for potential changes in ACA affordability beginning in 2026. It focuses on early signals, operational readiness, and budget planning for the 2026–2027 period.

Policy Context

Recent federal legislative actions did not include an extension of enhanced ACA premium tax credits scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. While policy discussions are ongoing, communities are preparing for potential affordability and coverage impacts beginning January 2026.

Tools

The tools below support scenario planning and real-time situational awareness. They are updated as new information becomes available.

“We are tracking early affordability signals in real time and translating them into estimated budget and coverage implications for the next federal cycle.”

Community Impact Map — Situational Awareness

This map reflects community-reported signals and practitioner observations. It does not represent official enrollment or claims data.

Data feed check: Open CSV feed (should download or show text)

Hello, World!

ACA Budget Impact Calculator (2026–2027)

Quick planning tool for estimating affordability + coverage risk if subsidies change. Adjust assumptions to match your county/state context.

People/Households affected (count)

Use households if you track households; use people if you track people. Just be consistent.

Average monthly premium (USD)

Benchmark plan or observed marketplace average.

Current subsidy share of premium (%)

Example: 70% means subsidies cover most of the premium.

Policy scenario: subsidy reduction (%)

100% = full loss of subsidies; 50% = half reduction; 0% = no change.

Coverage sensitivity (elasticity)

Simple planning knob: higher = more drop-off when costs rise. Typical planning range: 0.15–0.50.

Low/Mid/High dropout range multiplier

Use wide range when policy details are uncertain.

Per household/person increase

Monthly: $—

Annual: $—

This is the added out-of-pocket premium if the specified subsidy share is reduced by the scenario %.

Aggregate annual premium increase

Total: $—

Planning signal for partners/sponsors: “what’s at stake” in total affordability exposure.

Estimated coverage loss (range)

Low: —

Mid: —

High: —

Simple formula: dropout ≈ elasticity × (% premium increase) × multiplier. This gives a planning range, not a prediction.

Tip: If you want this to reflect a specific county/state dataset later, we can connect inputs to a Sheet or prefill by region.

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